Showing posts with label hype cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hype cycle. Show all posts

Saturday, January 20, 2007

UGC heading for the Trough of Disillusionment?

A colleague pointed out this recent article on Net Imperative about the lack of commercial opportunities for User Generated Content sites (specifically UGC video sites).

I don't think it's surprising to anyone in the industry that it's hard to get revenue from UGC video. There was certainly speculation around the wisdom of the YouTube price tag. Nevertheless, video sharing sites have taken off so much in terms of consumption that it's been relatively easy to ignore the fact that they're almost certainly still money-losing propositions.

My colleague point to the article as an indicator that UGC is entering what the Gartner Hype Cycle refers to as the 'trough of disillusionment'.

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Gartner Hype Cycle

Has the buzz about Second Life been annoying you? There's a conceptual framework called the Hype Cycle developed by Gartner that I find useful most weeks at helping me figure out my views on 'hot' technology news.

To be honest, I'm not sure how much rigour is behind it and I doubt that it's useful for definitive planning. It's extremely useful, however, in helping to maintain perspective, especially on new technologies.

The fundamental concept is that most or all technologies go through five phases of development that see the level of hype peak long before the technologies themselves become useful. Between excitement and usefulness there is a period where most people are decidedly underwhelmed by the technology.

If you take the mobile internet as an example, it was developed some years ago as a concept and there was a lot of excitement. This rapidly dissipated when people realised that WAP was really unimpressive and that no-one would be bothered with it. Now, WAP in its various forms is starting to make a comeback as phones have improved and people have found useful things to do with it.

I'd highly recommend reading through the concept and then doing a little search search of the interweb to see what people have posted (neglecting copyright of course).

Back to Second Life - companies that are making PR announcements or set up virtual shops in Second Life at the moment are very much taking advantage of the fact that the level of hype is extremely high. The vast majority of the value gained from these endeavours comes from association with the hype. There will be a severe drop in people's interest and the value to be gained from Second Life before there is any sustained interest from the 'general populaton'.